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For a brief period, Trump gave the impression to take a strong position on Ukraine. After making threats of "severe consequences" during the summer in case Putin continued blocking truce talks, the former president ultimately imposed considerable restrictions on Russia's biggest oil companies, these major energy companies. This decision substantially impacted the Russian leader's ability to finance his aggression in the region.

Yet, through his recently unveiled comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly developed by American and Russian diplomats without Ukrainian or EU input, he has apparently gone back to his favorable to Russia stance.

Rewarding Aggression

This plan would effectively favor the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while leaving the country's democracy in danger. Although strong statements that "The nation's autonomy will be confirmed", large portions of the plan effectively undermine that very sovereignty. Seen as a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his business background, the former president continues to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a mere territorial dispute, as if handing Putin a part of Ukrainian land will appease the ruler. Yet, Russia's invasion is not merely about occupying a charred region of industrial-devastated land in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and Putin's clear intention to destroy it so it stops acts as an enticing standard for the Russian citizens of the responsible leadership that his growing dictatorship withholds them.

Land Concessions

While keeping in place the presently split regions of these areas, Trump's initiative would require Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk region. Aside from benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unable to occupy in exceeding a lengthy period of fighting, this concession would leave Ukrainian military defenses dangerously compromised.

The area is the place of the nation's highly-touted "stronghold system", the well-established defensive positions that are a critical obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, providing Putin a clear way to the capital should he eventually opt to restart the conflict.

Defense Limitations

Then, in a step that would make additional conflict easier for Russia, Trump would force the nation to diminish the size of its military from their present large number soldiers to a cap of 600,000. Importantly, the plan imposes no equivalent restrictions on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's attempts to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected government as radicals, Trump's proposal declares: "Any extremist belief system and activities must be opposed and prohibited." Seemingly to emphasize this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. However, the proposal sets no requirement that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by allowing votes in his own country.

Security Assurances

To be sure, the proposal makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade bordering nations" and to "enshrine in law its position of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However given that Putin has breached equivalent agreements in the past – such as the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government promised to honor Ukraine's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its historical nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a truce and a handback of seized territory in the region to the government – for what reason should the international community have confidence in Putin this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international defense commitments. While the plan promises a "immediate unified armed reaction" should the Russian Federation renew its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the details vary from vague to concerning. The plan would not only block the nation alliance membership but also preclude member states from deploying troops on Ukraine's soil, thereby precluding the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively commanded by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Putin from restoring his reduced forces, rearming, and attacking again.

World Reaction

An additional parallel deal reportedly would offer the nation with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any later "major, deliberate, and continuous military assault" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an act of war threatening the tranquility of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. Yet different from a strong Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best deterrent against additional Russian aggression – the success of the side agreement would depend on the willingness of Western powers, such as Trump, to act through arms to Putin's hostilities, a response they have {not