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Only 48 hours prior to the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – not just who would win overall, but block by block. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become something of a well-known figure this year for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious although missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in readership and most voters favored the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

How was your night?

I had to do that since they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the tally every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were large groups of votes added later and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday went somewhat badly for him, where Cuomo would have basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained half a million supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved significantly with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Plus he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously backed Zohran this year. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

A major development of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I thought it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to surpass half. He’s at 50.4% but remain probably 200K ballots left to report at that time. Thus I don’t think certain, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it because afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Not even Tottenville in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump area. That really was unexpected. The independent held very white areas, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained all of these Republicans on the island with a high participation. I think occurred a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened before the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported the independent. So there existed a little resistance. But no, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but he did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see more of that – candidates will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.