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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.