Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
